The "Beta" Problem: HSTECH currently lacks the "Beta" (sensitivity) to outperform HSI.

The relationship between the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH) and the Hang Seng Index (HSI) represents the struggle between "New Economy/Growth" and "Old Economy/Value."

1. The "Discount" Level

• Price Ratio (HSTECH/HSI): In early 2021, this ratio peaked at 0.35. It currently fluctuates between 0.18 and 0.22. This indicates that HSTECH has de-rated by nearly 40-50% relative to the broader HSI over the last five years.
• Valuation Gap: HSTECH’s Forward P/E has compressed from 30x-40x to roughly 15x-18x. While still higher than HSI’s 8x-9x, HSTECH is trading at its 10th percentile of historical valuation, whereas HSI is at its 40th percentile due to the "China Special Valuation" (Zhongtegu) rally.

2. Major "Negative Contributors" to HSTECH (The Drags)

The HSTECH underperformance is driven by three main sectors:

1. E-commerce (Alibaba, JD.com): Intense competition from Pinduoduo (PDD) and consumption downgrading have turned these former growth engines into "value traps" with low-single-digit growth.
2. EV Price Wars (Li Auto, NIO, XPeng): Massive capital expenditure and shrinking margins in the EV sector have dragged down the index's overall profitability.
3. Lack of "AI Alpha": Unlike the US Nasdaq, which is powered by Nvidia/Microsoft, HSTECH components (Baidu, SenseTime) have yet to show significant AI monetization, leading to a "Growth Discount."

3. Contribution Gap: HSTECH vs. HSI

• HSI Resilience (The "Value" Pillars):
  • HSBC (0005.HK): Driven by high interest rates and massive share buybacks.
  • CNOOC (0883.HK): Benefiting from high oil prices and high dividend yields.
  • State-Owned Banks: Providing a "safe haven" for Southbound capital via the "High-Yield" theme.
• HSTECH Anchor (The "Lone Ranger"):
  • Tencent (0700.HK): The only major stabilizer. Its aggressive buyback program (HK$1B+ daily) has mitigated the impact of divestments by major shareholders (Prosus).
  • Meituan (3690.HK): Highly volatile; its contribution is often offset by regulatory concerns or shifting competitive landscapes in local services.

4. Current Position & Outlook

HSTECH is currently in an "L-shaped" bottoming phase.

• Technical Resistance: Strong resistance at 4,500–4,800 points due to heavy overhead supply.
• The "Beta" Problem: HSTECH currently lacks the "Beta" (sensitivity) to outperform HSI. It only rallies significantly when the USD weakens or when domestic stimulus specifically targets the "Platform Economy."

Summary Comparison Table